The United States faces Germany on Thursday in a crucial World Cup group match. In order for the US squad to guarantee a spot in the next round, they must get a result (i.e. a win or a draw) against Germany when they square off in Recife, Brazil.
If the USA wins or draws:
A US win or a draw guarantees that the United States will advance, and nearly guarantees that Germany will advance as well. If the US team wins, they will advance as the first place team in Group G, and Germany will advance in spot two (barring some other unlikely high scoring Group G results Thursday). In a draw, the US will advance in spot two, and Germany in spot one. Even better news: If Ghana and Portugal draw, the USA (and Germany) will advance no matter what. Second to our own success, our big hope is that GHA vs POR ends in a draw, because that guarantees a US advance regardless of the outcome against Germany.
If the USA loses and GHA/POR do not draw:
If we lose, and Ghana and Portugal do not tie, our destiny is unclear. Yet given all the above, America’s chances are still pretty good. Even in defeat, the US would be tied with the winner of GHA vs POR in group points, and the tiebreaker would be the higher goal differential (Goal Differential= Points For minus Points Against). The current Group G goal differential is GER 4, USA 1, GHA -1, POR -4. In order to be eliminated, the US team has to lose, and either Ghana has to beat Portugal by more than one point, or Portugal has to beat Ghana significantly.
If Ghana and the USA end up tied in group points and goal differential, the next tiebreaker is total goals scored. If the total goals scored end up tied as well (currently USA 4, GHA 3) then the US will advance since their head to head victory over Ghana would be the next tiebreaker.
For Portugal to advance after a win, it would come down to some unlikely goal differential scenarios. If the USMNT lose to Germany by one, Portugal would have to beat Ghana by five points in order to move ahead of the US. If team USA loses by two, Portugal would have to win by four, etc. So if not a draw, US fans have to hope GHA vs POR is a one point victory at most for Ghana, or a low point win by Portugal.
“That’s why they play the game!”
But as we all know, as soon as the final whistles blow tomorrow (both games start at 11AM US Central Time), all these possibilities and potentialities will have lost all value. The results will stand, and the teams will have determined the final group standings on the pitch. That’s why they play the game.
Ghana and the US both know they are fighting for their World Cup survival. I believe both will play like it. Germany knows they are almost certainly safe, but I expect them to come out and play to win first in the group. They will be ready, if not quite as motivated as the Americans. Portugal knows advancing will require a herculean effort. Whether they will actually come out and give that effort is a harder guess.
I expect to see the USA play their best game of the tournament against Germany, and hopefully that will be enough to at least leave with a draw. If not, my next greatest hope is that Ghana and Portugal end their game on level points.
I can’t predict the games’ outcomes, but hopefully this will allow you to focus all your attention and nail-biting anxiety on the games, and prevent you from having to make frantic calculations on your smartphone as you try to figure out all the possible advancement scenarios.
Pitchfield Sport 